The inflation rate is calculated using the price increase of a defined product basket.
Tweet After several months of worrisome macroeconomic data and amid a free-falling rupee, finally, there is some good news for the economy on the inflation front.
The July retail inflation has come at a nine-month low of 4. Going by the CSO data, inflation in vegetables declined by - 2.
The rate of price rise in fruits slowed down 6. The inflation in protein-rich items like meat and fish, and also milk was slower in July compared to the previous month. However, inflation in the 'fuel and light' segment increased to 7. This is encouraging given that the sharp fall in July inflation numbers come with food, vegetable prices and pulses exhibiting visibly a sharp drop.
Reuters A section of economists expects that if the August print too come at around 4 percent or even below, there is an expectation that the monetary policy committee MPC will not be in a tearing hurry to go for another rate hike in the October policy review.
The MPC might then wait till early next year to assess other risk factors, mainly the full impact of minimum support prices MSPvolatile exchange rate scenario and other external factors.
But, not everyone subscribes to this view. One worrying factor is that core inflation, or non-food, non-oil manufacturing inflation continues to be high. In July, the figure stood at 5. If this continues, coupled with upside risks from exchange rate and external factors, these are enough reasons for the MPC to effect another rate cut in October itself.
In this context, August numbers will be watched closely. The answer is yes, though the timing will be critical. The base effect will help to keep the number low, but a lot depends on how the non-food items behave. Lower GST rates should help to temper some prices which should come down.
Will it be universal? The MPC is unlikely to derive great comfort from the July inflation numbers alone and lower its guard on the inflation fight.
If one looks at the latest monetary policy review, the dominant language was that of caution. The MPC listed the upside risks of inflation; spiking crude oil price, global markets volatility, significant pick-up in household inflation expectations and the full impact of monsoon and so on.
Clearly, the rate-setting panel wants to keep inflation on a short leash and more rate hikes are sure to come. With data support from Kishor Kadam Updated Date: Aug 14, With member countries, staff from more than countries, and offices in over locations, the World Bank Group is a unique global partnership: five institutions working for sustainable solutions that reduce poverty and build shared prosperity in developing countries.
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Inflation India The inflation rate is based upon the consumer price index (CPI). The CPI inflation rates in the table are presented both on a monthly basis (compared to the month before) as well as on a yearly basis (compared to the same month the year before).
India Inflation Rate Rises to % in May India's annual inflation rate rose to percent in May of from percent in April, slightly above market expectations of percent. It is the highest reading in four months amid rising prices for food and fuel.